Make a claim.
State a probability and an unambiguous resolution rule before the deadline.
VIEW → RECORD
FIG. 01 — THE SIGNAL RINGA mark for every conviction.
A RECORD OF CONVICTION
Conviction
leaves a record.
A good call deserves more than a moment.
Put your research on record. Let time do the scoring.
Explore the local research notebook. No wallet required.
TRY A FORECAST / LOCAL SCORE PREVIEW
“Will the open dataset arrive by June 30?”
Illustrative question · adjust your conviction70%
91.0 / 100IF THE OUTCOME IS YESCreate your own record ↗
Timestamped viewsExplicit outcomesInspectable scoresReputation, over time.
01 / MAKE YOUR MARK
What do you
believe will happen?
Turn a view into a testable statement.
One question. One probability. One rule.
YOUR LOCAL RECORD
No resolved forecasts yet
Outcomes below are your own local simulations, not independently verified results. No financial settlement occurs.
02 / LET THE RECORD SPEAK
A track record.
Not a highlight reel.
76.8/100
4 resolved forecasts · illustrative data
Long-term score, not a hit rate
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCHER / A. REEDFictional questions, dates and outcomes. Select a record to inspect it.
03 / THE MECHANISM
Belief, meet
accountability.
Reputation is the history of what you said
before you knew what happened.
Keep the evidence.
Preserve the original view and its source. Public timestamping is the planned next layer.
RECORD → OUTCOMEEarn the history.
Score every resolved view. Keep the misses visible alongside the calls that worked.
OUTCOME → REPUTATIONNO BLACK BOX
A score you
can recompute.
For binary forecasts, the Brier error is the squared distance between your probability and the outcome. Average the error across resolved records, then invert it.
Read about proper scoring ↗SIGNAL BOND / LOCAL SCORING MODEL
100 × (1 − mean error)
Error per record(probability − outcome)²
OutcomeYes = 1 · No = 0
Pending / voidExcluded from the mean
Higher is better. A constant 50% forecast scores 75. Scores depend on question difficulty and sample size; this is not a calibrated skill ranking.
THE SIGNAL, IN MOTION
Every mark remains.
REPUTATION IS A LONG GAME.